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Gene Burk

I'm surprised at the rush to 200 mm facilities by these companies. A simple back of the note pad calculation indicates little likelihood of profitability. Take the case of the resonator for cell phones. ASP of the currently used Quartz device is about $0.20. While the TAM is ~ 1 billion annualy the realistic SAM for any one provider will max out at 400 Million per year. At 50,000 devices per wafer that will mean 1 wafer per hour of production which will be a small fraction of any factories capacity. With the additional optimistic assumption of 50% Gross Margin, which is highly unlikely at that low factory utilization, we have a facility buyback in the time frame of 5 years. That leaves no remaining revenue for profit and some very disgruntled investors.

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